A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
